A worked example

From one finding to a committed number.

How the APG Platform turns evidence into a net, timed, risk-adjusted value case, and what happens when the actuals disagree. One anonymised example, end to end.

Step 1 · Evidence

A service line that looks fine from the P&L.

An anonymised composite, with the numbers simplified for clarity. A service line produces $4 million in revenue. Total profit looks acceptable. But four independent lenses corroborate the same problem:

Value Engine

Contribution margin on the line has fallen from 34% to 27% over two years while revenue held at $4m.

Value Chain

Delivery rework runs at roughly 9% of direct hours, concentrated in two service variants.

Go-to-Market

Discounting is inconsistent: effective price varies up to 18% for near-identical work, depending on who quotes it.

Diagnostic

Leadership scored pricing discipline 7/10. The evidence scored it 3/10. The perception gap became the working session.

Each observation is logged in the register with its source and magnitude. Four lenses pointing at one cause is what separates a finding from an anecdote.

Step 2 · Opportunity

The pool is sized before anything is promised.

Consolidated, the evidence forms one opportunity pool: pricing discipline plus rework reduction on this line is worth up to $900,000 a year if fully captured. That is the gross number, and it is never the number we commit to. It competes against every other pool on value, confidence, cost, complexity, capacity and risk. This one ranks first: high value, strong evidence, fully within the team's control.

Step 3 · The value case

The honest arithmetic.

Gross opportunity $900,000 annual improvement identified
× Realistic capture 65% $585,000 captured value
Cost-to-achieve $110,000 pricing tooling, training, QA capacity
× Confidence 75% evidence strength and execution risk
= Committed value ≈ $356,000 net, timed, risk-adjusted

The plan commits to $356,000, not $900,000. The difference is not pessimism. It is the reason the number can be defended in twelve months.

Step 4 · Execution

One initiative. One owner. One number.

Owner
General Manager, Services
KPI
Contribution margin on the line, monthly
Work packages
Pricing floor and approval rules; rework root-cause fix in the two variants; quote templates
Milestones
Pricing rules live by week 6; rework below 5% by month 4
Dependencies
Quoting system change; one senior hire in QA
Review cadence
Team weekly. Monthly Value Review with APG against actuals

Step 5 · Actuals

The month the forecast was wrong.

Month three: contribution margin has lifted, but only two-thirds of the expected impact has landed in the ledger. The Monthly Value Review does not average it away. The cause is isolated (one variant's rework fix is behind schedule), the capture assumption for that work package is revised down, the milestone is reset, and the committed value for the initiative is restated.

That is the loop closing. The forecast changed because reality did, and everyone can see why. When actuals run ahead of the hypothesis, the same discipline applies in the other direction.

Value is realised or the plan changes. It is never just asserted.

Every step of this example (the register, the ranking, the value case, the bridge, the monthly reconciliation) runs inside the APG Platform. The evidence that starts it comes from a Commercial Assessment.

If performance is below potential, the first step is knowing precisely why.

A Commercial Assessment takes two to four weeks. Fixed fee. At the end, you have a clear picture of what is constraining performance, where the opportunity is, and what should happen first.

Start with a Commercial Assessment →

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