New to this? What these numbers mean and what the shock test shows
You're entering a few numbers to see how exposed you are if your biggest customer walks. Every money field is in Australian dollars. Plain English below.
- Enter your annual revenue and EBITDA, then your gross margin %.
- List your top customers by annual revenue, largest first. Rename the examples or add your own.
- Read the shock test: what happens to profit if your biggest customer leaves. Because your fixed costs stay put, losing a big customer takes far more off EBITDA than it takes off revenue.
- EBITDA
- Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation: roughly your annual operating profit before financing and accounting charges. It's the number a buyer usually starts from.
- Gross margin %
- The share of each sale left after the costs that vary directly with it (materials, subcontractors, delivery). Higher = more of a lost sale was profit you keep paying for.
- Valuation multiple
- The times-profit a buyer pays: value is roughly EBITDA times this number. A business leaning on one big customer is riskier, so buyers apply a lower multiple.
- The shock test
- What happens if your largest customer leaves. Their revenue goes, but your fixed costs (rent, salaries, systems) stay, so the hit to EBITDA is much larger than the hit to revenue.
Your numbers
The business
Your top customers (by annual revenue, largest first)
Your exposure
Largest customer
Top 3 customers: 47% of revenue. Top 5: 56%. The more that sits with a few names, the harder a buyer discounts.
Shock test: if your largest customer left
A loss of A$945K in EBITDA. Because the fixed costs stay, losing 30% of revenue takes far more than 30% off profit.
Illustrative value discount
A rough read on what this concentration takes off enterprise value, before other drivers.
A Commercial Assessment finds where the concentration risk actually sits, and the realistic path to spreading it.
Illustrative and simplified. The shock test assumes the lost customer's costs are variable and the fixed base stays, which is usually close for a large account, and it ignores the time and cost to win replacement work. The value discount is a broad, one-buyer view, not a valuation, and real buyers weigh concentration alongside contract terms, switching costs and how replaceable the customer is. Use it to size the exposure, then get specific advice. Not financial advice.
Concentration is a risk you can usually reduce, given time.
Spreading revenue, locking in contracts, and deepening the next tier of customers all lower the discount, but none happen quickly. A Commercial Assessment maps your real exposure and the path to a more durable revenue base.
Start with a Commercial Assessment →Not ready to talk? Find your constraint in 60 seconds →